I do wonder about Heinberg's message from time to time. It seems like he was wrong about a key matter. But if I'm mistaken, please enlighten me...
The oil-dependent economy is indeed headed for collapse. But on what sort of time-scale? Fracking has not made oil no longer finite. But as far as I can tell fracking has postponed collapse by a good margin; enough that I expect collapse will be triggered by some other unsustainability. The critique Heinberg made of fracking was that it yielded a negative return on energy investment, i.e. the energy in the gas and oil produced, was less than what was required to extract it. It should've accelerated collapse. But all I see is the boon. We had the great recession, but since then we've seen America become a net oil/energy producer! This after supposedly peaking in oil production circa 1973. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, but at this point I don't think it will. If you know something I don't, I'd love to hear it. Thanks.
Richard recently wrote a piece about peak oil, aimed at Gen Z (though he should have TikTokked it instead), which addresses fracking: https://richardheinberg.com/museletter-390-peak-oil-for-gen-z. Richard never claimed that fracking had a negative energy return on investment, just that it had a lower EROEI than conventional oil production (true) and came with higher environmental and financial costs (also true), and that fracked wells suffered from much higher depletion rates (also true, something PCI analyzed in great detail).
He has written and spoken about what the peak oil community got wrong -- not sufficiently understanding the interactions between the energy and economic and political systems (the 2009 crash, at least partly driven by conventional oil peak) led to quantitative easing/free money, which led to massive investments in fracking) and focusing too much on predicting the peak. One thing I've been amazed at is the resilience of the current system. Fracking has been a part of that. But sadly, when the music stops, it'll likely mean a much sharper collapse and in the meantime, we have squandered ancient energy, polluted air and water, and left future generations and the more-than-human world in much worse shape. That was always Richard's greatest concern.
Thank you Asher for the clarifications. And for stewarding https://poscarbon.org - more important than ever. When one's mentor dies, it challenges you to up your game, BE the voice you depending on them to be.
Yes Vicki ! A real loss. Richard was a bright light in an otherwise dismal age. We were friends in the Eighties and enjoyed sharing ideas and concepts together. We eventually lost touch with one another unfortunately.
Yet I shall always treasure what we did experience. We both thought that life is forever so I am convinced that Richard’s journey continues in one way or another. Thank you for remembering him.
Sorry to hear this.
I do wonder about Heinberg's message from time to time. It seems like he was wrong about a key matter. But if I'm mistaken, please enlighten me...
The oil-dependent economy is indeed headed for collapse. But on what sort of time-scale? Fracking has not made oil no longer finite. But as far as I can tell fracking has postponed collapse by a good margin; enough that I expect collapse will be triggered by some other unsustainability. The critique Heinberg made of fracking was that it yielded a negative return on energy investment, i.e. the energy in the gas and oil produced, was less than what was required to extract it. It should've accelerated collapse. But all I see is the boon. We had the great recession, but since then we've seen America become a net oil/energy producer! This after supposedly peaking in oil production circa 1973. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, but at this point I don't think it will. If you know something I don't, I'd love to hear it. Thanks.
Richard recently wrote a piece about peak oil, aimed at Gen Z (though he should have TikTokked it instead), which addresses fracking: https://richardheinberg.com/museletter-390-peak-oil-for-gen-z. Richard never claimed that fracking had a negative energy return on investment, just that it had a lower EROEI than conventional oil production (true) and came with higher environmental and financial costs (also true), and that fracked wells suffered from much higher depletion rates (also true, something PCI analyzed in great detail).
He has written and spoken about what the peak oil community got wrong -- not sufficiently understanding the interactions between the energy and economic and political systems (the 2009 crash, at least partly driven by conventional oil peak) led to quantitative easing/free money, which led to massive investments in fracking) and focusing too much on predicting the peak. One thing I've been amazed at is the resilience of the current system. Fracking has been a part of that. But sadly, when the music stops, it'll likely mean a much sharper collapse and in the meantime, we have squandered ancient energy, polluted air and water, and left future generations and the more-than-human world in much worse shape. That was always Richard's greatest concern.
Thank you Asher for the clarifications. And for stewarding https://poscarbon.org - more important than ever. When one's mentor dies, it challenges you to up your game, BE the voice you depending on them to be.
Thanks much - looking forward to reading it.
Peak oil as a felt limit did fade into the background with the advent of fracking. Richard knew that I'm sure
May his memory be a blessing.
May you be well.
Yes Vicki ! A real loss. Richard was a bright light in an otherwise dismal age. We were friends in the Eighties and enjoyed sharing ideas and concepts together. We eventually lost touch with one another unfortunately.
Yet I shall always treasure what we did experience. We both thought that life is forever so I am convinced that Richard’s journey continues in one way or another. Thank you for remembering him.
He was a gift to us all, Vicki. ❤️
Truth told. Up to us to keep on telling it.
I'm so very sorry for your loss Vicki. Our loss actually. He was a gift to this troubled but still beautiful world.